The government’s Brexit deal would leave the UK £100bn a year worse off by 2030, analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has claimed.

The study commissioned by the People’s Vote, which wants a second referendum, said GDP would shrink by 3.9% annually.

“This is the equivalent of losing the economic output of Wales or the City of London,” it said.

Chancellor Philip Hammond has said the deal is better than staying in the EU.

NIESR’s research modelled different Brexit scenarios against a baseline of staying in the EU.

It found that the government’s preferred outcome – leaving in March 2019 and entering a transition period lasting until December 2020 before moving to a free trade agreement – would lead to a huge reduction in trade and investment.

“This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.”

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said the UK would not be “significantly worse or better off”

Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable, who supports a second referendum, said: “Nobody voted for less control or to be worse off but somehow the government have managed to come up with something that will achieve both.

If MPs reject the deal, a number of things could happen

  • We would leave no deal
  • We could renegotiate
  • A General Election could be called
  • We could all get fed up of Brexit and move to Benidorm for three months.